EAA Web Session: Stochastic Modeling of Mortality with Special Focus on Pandemic Risk

The goal of the web session is to give participants a comprehensive introduction to stochastic mortality models, epidemiological models, and how the two interact during pandemic times. We will examine in detail a stochastic mortality model based on the textbook “Stochastic Modeling – Theory and Reality from an Actuarial Perspective” (copyright © 2010 International Actuarial Association). After studying the technical specifications of the model, participants will learn to calibrate and apply the model through use of a practical, Excel-based example.

The stochastic mortality model presented in the textbook includes a pandemic component, which is calibrated based on historical pandemic experience. This web session will present updates to the pandemic component to reflect emerging experience in the COVID-19 pandemic. Participants will also learn how COVID-19 compares to various historical pandemics.

Participants will receive an introduction to epidemiological models, including how those models can be used to measure the emerging impact of an ongoing pandemic. The web session will discuss how epidemiological models can be incorporated into stochastic mortality models, including the ability to reflect stochastic uncertainty in an ongoing, emerging pandemic.

Registration Deadline: 21 March 2021