EAA Web Session ‚Intro to Conformal Prediction & Uncertainty in Actuarial Models‘

Quantifying Uncertainty in Actuarial Models: An Introduction to Conformal Prediction
As the actuarial landscape becomes increasingly data-driven, traditional statistical methods are evolving, linking point estimates with quantifiable uncertainty. Conformal Prediction is a powerful framework used to evaluate the uncertainty of predictions. It turns point predictions into prediction regions, in this way, when you make a prediction, the output has probabilistic guarantees that it covers the true outcome. In this web session, we will explore the theoretical foundations of Conformal Prediction, its assumptions, methodology, and advantages over traditional approaches. Participants will see how this technique can be a disruptive innovation in risk assessment, pricing, reserving, and forecasting by integrating uncertainty directly into predictions. The session is balanced between theory and hands-on activities, offering real-world examples and code demonstrations in classification, regression, time series, natural language processing (NLP), and computer vision, all applied to challenges in the actuarial field.

The web session aims to equip actuarial professionals with the knowledge and skills behind Conformal Prediction, improving the reliability and interpretability of their predictive models. By the end of the course, participants will understand how to apply conformal methods to various types of data and leverage these techniques to improve decision-making processes in actuarial tasks.
Anmeldeschluss: 2025-06-11
Link: https://actuarial-academy.com/seminars/seminar?No=E0508